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Inside the Lines team
MLB Trade Impact: Ryan McMahon to Yankees
FanDuel is offering a price of +1000 for the Yankees to win the World Series. This implies around a 9% chance. In the SportsLine Model we had the Yankees at 12.7%, which was already a good value prior to acquiring Ryan McMahon. DraftKings and BetRivers are offering just +700 on the Yankees.
While his impact in terms of +Wins is just +0.3 in their remaining 60 games (+0.5% improvement in win% per game) that’s still enough to significantly improve their chances of winning the AL East and as a result win the World Series.
Grades:
Yankees Grade: B+
While McMahon’s batting average and OPS don’t stand out, the Yankees added a strong defender who will hit home runs. McMahon has 16 home runs and is a left-handed bat that could benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were hitting .214 with 11 home runs from the third base position before the trade. McMahon is an affordable asset with team control. With it sounding like Eugenio Suarez’ asking price was steep, it makes sense that the Yankees went with the less expensive option, especially considering Suarez would be a rental. The Yankees parted with two pitching prospects, but neither was among their top pitching prospects.
Rockies Grade: B
The Rockies are in a rebuilding mode and this trade makes sense for them. McMahon had a negative contract value considering his output and for a team that is competing for one of the worst seasons in baseball history, getting prospects and building for the future is a smart move. The Rockies did sell McMahon at a discount value, as he has not been performing well as a whole over the last few seasons. Trying to stack arms and hoping one of them click is a gamble the Rockies need to make, given how hard it is to land premium arms in Denver– pitchers don’t want to pitch in that type of altitude.
| NEW YORK YANKEES | WIN | WIN% | AL EAST | PLAYOFF | ALCS | WS |
| Before Trade | 91.5 | 56.5% | 39.4% | 91.2% | 24.3% | 12.7% |
| w/ McMahon | 91.8 | 56.7% | 42.0% | 92.2% | 25.9% | 13.5% |
| Diff | 0.3 | 0.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| REST OF SEASON | WIN | LOSS | WIN% | |||
| Before Trade | 35.5 | 24.5 | 59.2% | |||
| w/ McMahon | 35.8 | 24.2 | 59.7% | |||
| Diff | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.5% |
Inside the Lines team
Josh Naylor Traded to the Mariners
The Mariners have the arms to make a run this season, which is why we had value on the Mariners as longshots to win both the AL and World Series, but their lack of bats have been holding them back the last few seasons. The model loves Josh Naylor’s ability to hit for average (.292 overall) especially against right-handed pitching (.310 with a .888 OPS). The impact of landing Naylor is seen more on Seattle’s chances to make the playoffs than their chances to win the ALCS or World Series, both of which didn’t change much. If Julio Rodriguez can get hot throughout the rest of the season, the AL is open enough that the Mariners are worth a shot at +1100 to win the AL.
Mariners Grade: B+
The Mariners needed to add a batter with a high batting average, especially at the first base position. Between Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena, the Mariners have a lot of boom or bust on their roster. Cal Raleigh is second in AL MVP odds for good reason, but he’s also not going to hit for a high average. Naylor gives the Mariners a batter that is going to hit righties and boost the overall team BA. Naylor is a rental and cost the Mariners a potential useful bullpen arm in Brandyn Garcia. Its a very solid move that probably falls between a B and B+. Garcia was just an 11th round pick that the Mariners developed, so its more of a testament of the Mariners relatively strong system.
Diamondbacks Grade: B
The Diamondbacks are having a disappointing season and are sellers at the deadline. Getting value for Naylor who is a free agent this offseason makes sense. Slade Cecconi, who Arizona gave up along with a draft pick to get Naylor, has been solid for Cleveland this season. So it hurts that they gave up a promising pitcher only to have Naylor for a short time, but the return for Naylor is solid given his impending free agency.
| SEATTLE MARINERS | WIN | WIN% | AL WEST | PLAYOFF | ALCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| w/o Naylor | 88.9 | 54.9% | 32.8% | 79.4% | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| w/ Naylor | 89.2 | 55.1% | 35.5% | 81.7% | 17.4% | 8.6% |
| Diff | 0.3 | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The best price for Seattle to win the division that our books are offering is at Caesars +375 which implies a little over 21%. Our nearly 36% chance with Naylor in the lineup makes this a pretty strong +$$$ betting value. Their odds of making the playoffs are between -240 (DraftKings) and -250 (Caesars, FanDuel). These imply over 70% and we also have value with our nearly 82% forecast.
While the Naylor addition did not measurably improve Seattle’s World Series chances in our simulations they are still at nearly 9% which is more than double what their best priced +2400, 4% line that Fanatics is offering. FanDuel and Caesars are both offering +2100, 4.54%.
