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An asteroid hurtling through space could hit the moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is on a possible collision course with the earth’s satellite, and scientists are trying to figure out how best to deal with it.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered last year, when astronomers calculated that it had a 3% chance of hitting the earth. Trajectory models have since been refined, and scientists no longer believe that it will strike the earth. The asteroid does, however, have a 4% chance of hitting the moon.
A recent paper from more than a dozen researchers, including several NASA scientists, explores the question of how we can avoid a possible collision between the asteroid and the moon.
The paper, which is yet to be peer reviewed, was spearheaded by Brent Barbee from the Department of Aerospace Engineering at the University of Maryland and a flight Dynamics Engineer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. It lays out three possible methods to deal with 2024 YR4. Here’s what they are:
Deflection
Deflection means giving the asteroid a small push to change its path so it misses the moon. NASA tested this in 2022 with the DART mission, smashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to shift its orbit.
For 2024 YR4, though, this is risky, as scientists don’t know exactly what it’s made of. Observations suggest it’s about 60 metres wide and stony, but its mass is uncertain – it could be a solid rock or a loose pile of rubble. A nudge might break it into pieces, and one of those pieces could still hit the moon.
“Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical,” the paper said.
Robust disruption
Since deflecting the asteroid is out of question, the next possibility is robust disruption. This means hitting the asteroid with enough force to break it into pieces no larger than 10 metres. The fragments would spread out and no longer be a threat, explained ZME Science.
Researchers say a heavier, faster version of the DART spacecraft could do this, and there are launch windows that would allow a mission before 2032.
Nuclear explosion
The last option is a nuclear explosive device detonated a short distance from the asteroid. A standoff blast would vapourise a thin layer of surface rock, and that vaporised material would blow off and shatter the asteroid. The paper finds a 1‑megaton device could robustly break even the heaviest version of 2024 YR4, with a safe detonation distance of about 85 metres — roughly 60 times the yield of the Hiroshima bomb.
What will happen if the asteroid hits the moon?
If the asteroid does hit the moon in 2032, its impact could launch a huge cloud of lunar rock and dust. Some of this debris might reach low‑earth orbit, posing a serious risk to satellites and even spacecraft.
“This could produce debris up to 1,000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft,” the researchers wrote in the paper.
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